A YEAR FOR RECONNECTING

Remove

Executive Director Stephen Jacobi offers his annual end of year round up. Amidst some challenging times, he reports some light in the tunnel.

read more

Guest Post: Is TPP dead – or not?

by | Dec 19, 2016 | Trade Working Blog

Remove

Guest post from Tracey Epps, Trade Law Consultant, Chapman Tripp.

free-thinkingTPP provides that the Agreement cannot enter into force without the US. But before we declare TPP dead, we should recall that there is no time limit to prevent the other 11 signatories from continuing to press the US to change its position.

Unfortunately, this is not without risk for New Zealand. We don’t know if or when the US might change its position, and whether in doing so it might insist on “fixes” to the Agreement. And of course, while we wait, other countries could make bilateral deals (such as Australia has already done with Japan) that give them market access advantages over us.

Another option is for the other 11 signatories to go ahead without the US. While not ideal, this would still have benefits for New Zealand exporters, especially in those countries with which we do not have FTAs. And surely, at some point in time, the US would want to join in. This option would require strong political will among the 11, which is no sure thing. Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has stated that TPP without the US “has no meaning” and that the fundamental balance of interests would be disturbed. This is a fair point – the entry into force provision reads the way it does because the other 11 wanted US participation. But circumstances do change, and it may be worth trying to salvage what we can, despite earlier intentions.

Assuming political will among the 11, a new agreement (TPP 2.0) would be required with, at minimum, a revised entry into force clause. Provisions specific to the US, such as its market access schedule, could either be removed or remain (although they would have no legal effect in the absence of the US).

The key uncertainty in this scenario is whether the remaining 11 would want to renegotiate the Agreement. Those that made concessions in return for access to the lucrative US market may well wish to do so. But aside from the time and resources involved, renegotiation would risk unravelling hard-fought benefits obtained, and may reduce the likelihood of the US returning to the fold.

A simpler approach could be for the 11 to agree not to enforce some of the more controversial (i.e. US –driven) provisions until such time as agreed otherwise. This could go some way towards addressing concerns about concessions made and would preserve TPP’s attractiveness to the US.

If the remaining 11 were to find the political will to move forward with TPP version 2.0, the US could, at a later stage, like any other country, submit a request to accede to the Agreement. A working group would then be formed to negotiate terms and conditions for the accession. Whether this would leave the door open for the US to tweak the Agreement would remain to be seen.

This is an abridged version of an op ed that appeared in the print edition of the National Business Review on 9 December 2016.

REGISTER WITH TRADE WORKS

Register to stay up to date with latest news, as well as saving and discussing articles you’re interested in.

 

Remove

 

Latest News

A YEAR FOR RECONNECTING

As I write this end of year dispatch, NZIBF is preparing to host the first meeting for 2023 of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC).  We are looking forward to welcoming the 200 or so business leaders and senior officials from APEC member economies across the...

NZ Herald: Time to lift our game in India

Following his recent visit to India our Executive Director Stephen Jacobi penned this article advocating a more strategic approach to the further development of the relationship. The article was published by the NZ Herald on 9 December.

APEC Rolls out Priorities for 2023

Issued by the Informal Senior Officials’ Meeting - Honolulu, The United States, 13 December 2022 Aiming to provide tailwinds for member economies to strengthen recovery and resilience, as well as advance broad-based economic growth, the United States rolled out its...

NZIBF 2022 Chair Report

ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2022 CHAIR’S REPORT I am pleased to present my second report on the activities and achievements of the NZ International Business Forum (NZIBF) for 2022-23, our fifteenth year of operations.  At the outset I would like to thank Members for...

NZ BUSINESS LEADERS AT APEC 2022

New Zealand business will be represented at the APEC Leaders’ Week in Bangkok, commencing 13 November, by members of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). New Zealand’s three members – Rachel Taulelei, Malcolm Johns and Anna Curzon – supported by Stephen Jacobi...

Submission to MFAT for CPTPP Review

30 September 2022 Phil Mellor Economic Division, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Wellington (By email) Dear Phil, Thank you for your email of 1 September, seeking our comments on the three year review of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans...

WHAT’S IN A NAME?

The now widespread use of the term “Indo Pacific” to describe the region to which New Zealand belongs brings a risk of geographical confusion. When did the “Asia Pacific” become the Indo Pacific?   For thirty years or more New Zealand has sought to enhance...

NZ Herald: Turbulence in global trade

Amidst the political topsy turvy of recent weeks came the news that the Government has refreshed its Trade Recovery Strategy.  That’s good news because, for exporters and the global economy as a whole, it’s tough out there. The pandemic is by no means over, there...

Address to World Affairs Forum, 22 August 2022

ADDRESS TO THE WORLD AFFAIRS FORUM AUCKLAND, 22 AUGUST 2022 STEPHEN JACOBI EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR NZ INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS FORUM TURBULENCE IN GLOBAL TRADE Thanks to Greg Thwaite for inviting me to speak to you this evening. It’s good to be back in the habit of meeting...