NZIBF’s submission to MFAT on the New Zealand UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Negotiations.
China’s Dream – Trade War and Peace
Over 3000 international companies from 150 nations including 90 New Zealand exporters are participating in the forthcoming China International Import Expo (CIIE) which opens in Shanghai on 5 November. Conceived as a means to show China’s openness to the rest of the world, CIIE is a symbol for the dream of a more prosperous and integrated China, but it takes place against the background of a debilitating trade war. Business carries on, but competing economic visions will need to find a way to co-exist if global trade is going to be the engine of future progress and sustained prosperity.
China’s dream but not as we know it
President Xi Jinping’s dream (中国梦)is one with Chinese characteristics. He speaks of a “new era” for Chinese development, one from which China will emerge as a “moderately prosperous” (sic) and “fully developed” nation. The China dream is to be achieved largely by cultural and economic rejuvenation, including the sharp crack-down on corruption underway for several years now and the embracing of a new technologically-based economy particularly in areas like artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, biotech and in the digital space. There are many aspects of this dream to admire – notably its focus on eliminating poverty and promoting environmental sustainability – but also to raise concern – its neglect of individual freedoms and social and religious diversity, for example. On the economic side, the China dream foresees an expanded role for China’s state-owned enterprises and the use of massive state subsidies – that’s a problem for the rest of the world which sees them as a root cause of global market distortion. Initiatives like the “Made in China 2025” industry policy are likewise seen as a narrowly conceived bid for economic dominance in the high-tech sector. Other models are more usefully based on principles of economic inter-dependence and co-operation, like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which, if the geo-politics can be avoided, offers scope for enhanced connectivity.
China’s dream, America’s nightmare?
Across the Pacific, President Donald J Trump has also has a dream, one firmly focused on preserving, seemingly at any cost, US pre-eminence both in economic and security terms. The trade war unleashed against China is still limited in scope but is doubtless having an impact – most noticeably, on the US agricultural sector, which is being deprived of a lucrative market by Chinese retaliation. Where this will end no-one really knows, not the least of whom the Chinese who may be at a loss to understand what exactly they need to do to avoid the worst. That’s because this conflict is no longer really about trade per se – it is a much wider contest of competing economic and social visions as the US challenges the very basis of the Chinese dream itself. That makes the current environment even more worrisome.
This is no longer really about trade per se – it is a much wider contest of competing economic and social visions
Can the rest of us share in China’s dream?
This is the difficult background against which CIIE takes place. The organisers and those attending including over 90 from New Zealand, co-ordinated by NZTE, are motivated by dreams of increased trade and business and doubtless these will be realised as China mobilises its enormous buying power from across the country. “In times of crisis, keep shopping” is a strategy that was used once before (by President George W Bush). CIIE provides a great opportunity for New Zealand companies to showcase their products to Chinese consumers, develop new relationships and consolidate existing ones.
But deeper thinkers need to pay attention to the bigger picture. China and the United States are two huge poles of economic activity with the ability to deliver much needed prosperity to the rest of the world. They are themselves already highly integrated. Their friends and partners have a key interest in their mutually assured success. Rather than picking sides, we in New Zealand and others need to be doing all we can, both bilaterally and through the multilateral institutions to which we belong, to encourage the greater alignment of these competing dreams and visions.
This post was prepared by Stephen Jacobi, Executive Director of NZIBF. Stephen also serves as Executive Director of the NZ China Council and will be attending CIIE. From 2005-2014 he was Executive Director of the NZ US Council.
REGISTER WITH TRADE WORKS
Register to stay up to date with latest news, as well as saving and discussing articles you’re interested in.
Latest News
SUBMISSION TO THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE – APRIL 2024
NEW ZEALAND-UAE COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT NEGOTIATIONS This submission is made on behalf of the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF), whose members are listed at Annex A[1]. NZIBF is a forum of senior business leaders working together...
NEW TEAM FOR AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND LEADERSHIP FORUM
Media release, 2 April 2024 The New Zealand Co-Chair of the Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum (ANZLF), Greg Lowe, welcomes the appointment of Stephen Jacobi and Simon Le Quesne to the New Zealand arm of the ANZLF Secretariat. The ANZLF brings business leaders,...
NZ/EU FTA A BONUS FOR SOME SECTORS – BUSINESS FORUM
Media release, 22 March 2024 The NZ International Business Forum (NZIBF) acknowledges the passage of the implementing legislation for the New Zealand/European Union Free Trade Agreement and looks forward to the FTA’s entry into force on 1 May. “This agreement was...
“MEAGRE OUTCOME” FROM WTO IN ABU DHABI – BUSINESS FORUM
Media release, 2 March 2024 Despite its overwhelming importance at the heart of the international trade system, members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have concluded their Ministerial in Abu Dhabi (“MC13”) with only a meagre outcome. NZ International Business...
To go or woe with the WTO?
We’ve been here before with the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The global trade body’s 13th Ministerial meeting (“MC13”) opens in Abu Dhabi on Monday 26 February, with Trade Minister McClay serving as Vice-Chair. In recent weeks diplomats, trade...
DCANZ – Agricultural Subsidy Distortions Must Be Addressed
23 February 2024 - Media Release by the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ) As the world’s Trade Ministers head to a WTO meeting in Abu Dhabi, the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ) is calling for an immediate capping of agricultural...
Asia-Pacific business leaders call for greater economic dynamism with people at the center of the APEC agenda
16 February 2024 - APEC NEWS RELEASE Issued by The APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) The APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC), meeting this week in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, expressed deep concerns about the growing pressures of economic fragmentation and the risks...
SUBMISSION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENCE AND TRADE COMMITTEE – FEBRUARY 2024
NEW ZEALAND EUROPEAN UNION FREE TRADE AGREEMENT LEGISLATION AMENDMENT BILL Introduction and Summary This submission is made on behalf of the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF) and Export NZ. NZIBF is a forum of senior business leaders working...
ABAC Statement on WTO MC13 – February 2024
Now, more than ever, the world needs a credible, relevant, and effective multilateral trading system, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its core. In this era of global challenges, the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) recognizes that the WTO is...
Global Industry Statement on the WTO Moratorium on Customs Duties on Electronic Transmissions
NZIBF has joined 170 international business associations in calling for an extension to the current moratorium on tariffs applying to digital services (like Netflix) at the forthcoming WTO Ministerial meeting. The undersigned associations urge WTO members to support...
Resilient supply chains: Yesterday, today and tomorrow
Published by the Hinrich Foundation, Singapore, 23 August 2024 By Stephen Jacobi History has much to teach us about the way trade contributes to prosperity through the movement of goods, services, people, and ideas. Today, data can be added to this web of...
SUBMISSION TO THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE
GENERAL REVIEW OF THE COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS- PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) DECEMBER 2023 Summary This submission is made on behalf of the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF). As individual NZIBF Members may make their own...
Todd McClay – your trade mission, should you choose to accept it …
As published by Newsroom 19 December 2023 By Stephen Jacobi “Twas the week before Christmas, When all through the house Not a creature was stirring, Except busy trade officials … ‘Tis the season to be “BiM-ing”* and the NZ International Business Forum has sent its...
2023 – Steps forward and back
Trade liberalisation moved forward and backward in 2023. Some notable gains have been achieved for New Zealand, but war, geo-political rivalry and global inflation continue to depress global markets. While the pandemic continued to lurk in the shadows, 2023 was the...
NZIBF releases Brief to the Incoming Minister of Trade
DECEMBER 2023...